Emergency Market Mapping and Analysis Toolkit

In December 2013, the political fall-out between the president of South Sudan and his former vice president led to a gradual escalation of violence with wide ranging implications: the displacement of populations and their livestock, the disruption of agricultural production and the obstruction of trade routes and markets. These problems were further compounded by the severe impacts of a ban on trade between South Sudan and Sudan and by the seasonal flooding that occurred in 2014. This EMMA study examined the sorghum and livestock off-take market systems in Abiemnhom County, Unity State, approximately a year after the start of the conflict. It finds that the sorghum, cattle and shoats market system were functional, although there were significant disruptions, inefficiencies and bottlenecks. Short-term recommendations include supporting household purchasing power through food vouchers and unconditional cash transfers, as well as targeted support to businesses to reduce the risk of inflation.

More than half of the population in southern Sudan lives below the poverty line. The high household reliance on cereals makes the population highly vulnerable to crop failure and abnormal price movements. This assessment applies learning from the 2011 drought in the Horn of Africa to the South Sudanese context with the aim of supporting more effective, timely and appropriate responses to slow onset recurrent crisis via a pre-crisis market analysis. This study focused on the agricultural labor market system in Warrap and Western Bahr el Ghazal States. Its findings suggest that the agricultural labor market system is not sufficient to cover the gap in household income even in baseline years, let alone emergency years. The agricultural labor market is fragile, and floods, drought and insecurity all reduce the demand for labor. Given the complexity of the agricultural labor system and the high variability among states, and even counties, there is no simple solution to address the challenges noted. This assessment recommends more detailed research, including an HEA study, as well as the provision of agricultural inputs such as seeds and tools and appropriate food assistance.

Abyei is a relatively small and disputed area of land on the border of North and South Sudan that in recent years has experienced much turmoil. In May 2011, following violent skirmishes, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) sent troops into Abyei seeking to push out the Southern forces.Compounding the pressure and instability caused by the numbers of both the returnees and the IDPs, the North blocked important trade routes to the South in the midst of the traditional lean season. The combination of these factors had a significant impact on food security in both the short and medium terms. This EMMA was conducted jointly by Mercy Corps and the Norwegian Refugee Council in June 2011 and focused on analyzing the impact of the conflict and the road closure on the maloda (traditional hoe) and okra seed market systems in northern parts of South Sudan. This EMMA report suggests that in-kind seed distributions often undermine markets in the region and inhibit the development of market linkages. It recommends that NGOs stop working as "market actors" and promotes market responses that encourage the market to function better on its own. It also suggests that longer term programs should focus on promoting new and more effective agricultural practices.

In 2012, violence in the Sudanese border regions of South Kordofan and Blue Nile States generated huge influxes of people crossing the border from Sudan to seek refuge and assistance in South Sudan. Over half of the refugees settled in Maban County, and by early 2013, refugees represented more than half of the local population. Solidarités International commissioned a rapid market assessment using the EMMA methodology and two HEA livelihood baseline assessments in Maban County in order to develop a comprehensive understanding of the livelihoods of refugees and host community members in the affected area and to ultimately enhance the design of Solidarités International and other aid agencies' food security and livelihoods interventions. It examined the sorghum, livestock and vegetable markets among the host and refugee communities. Overall, market systems in Maban County are dynamic and have responded effectively to increased demand, but local livelihoods are also constrained by limited cash income. Based on these findings, this assessment recommends a comprehensive package including cash transfers, seeds vouchers and dairy vouchers for the low-income refugee households, as well as a cash crop-focused strategy for middle-income host and refugee households that reevaluates the market systems for sorghum, maize, sesame, honey, and vegetables.

On December 15, 2013, fighting broke out in the South Sudanese capital of Juba, and the conflict quickly spread to other areas of the country. Nearly 709,000 people were displaced within the country, leading to a food security crisis and extreme insecurity. Mercy Corps, Goal and SPEDP organized this EMMA assessment between February and March 2014 in Abyei Administrative Area, Western Bahr el Ghazal and Northern Bahr el Ghazal. Sorghum was selected as a critical market system for the assessment given its importance for food security for the local households. During the emergency year, the market was not only affected by the crisis, but also by a severe flood. This assessment recommends in-kind provision of sorghum to increase food availability; cash transfers to increase purchasing power; commodity vouchers for extremely vulnerable households; and direct distribution of seeds and commodity vouchers for tools during the upcoming planting season.

South Sudan faces chronic food insecurity. This study of markets in three South Sudanese states looks at the appropriateness of cash transfer programming in food security responses and assesses whether markets could respond adequately to increased demand without causing inflation. During the emergency year, vulnerable households in all three states faced a severe deficit in their ability to purchase basic foods due to severely reduced yields and decreased income levels. The sorghum market saw higher prices, lower demand and high inflation. The report suggests that supporting purchasing power alone will not be sufficient to meet people’s needs because of the risk of inflation. Therefore, this assessment suggests activities designed to improve the functioning of the market in addition to improving consumers' purchasing power. Contingency funds and other flexible funding are recommended to limit risks associated with this volatile environment. It is also advised that short-term programs need to be coherent with longer-term ones that focus on addressing the chronic issues that inhibit resilience building.

December 2013 violence in South Sudan had killed thousands and displaced more than 900,000 people. It has also led to a serious deterioration in the food security situation, and some 3.7 million people are at high risk of food insecurity in the coming year. Food partners have so far reached about 865,000 people under the emergency operation between January and April 2014 with most of the food being distributed in-kind. The objectives of this market analysis were for Oxfam to explore alternatives to in-kind food aid in its different areas of interventions and to create a market baseline for three critical market systems, including red sorghum, maize flour and soap. This report recommends the following response activities: advocacy for integrating maize flour into the food aid distributed, and procuring both maize and sorghum food aid through Juba vendors; commodity vouchers for soap distribution; value vouchers as a top-up for basic needs; and conducting market analyses in other Oxfam intervention areas in South Sudan.

In December 2013, conflict along tribal lines started in Juba, the capital of South Sudan and soon spread to six of the country's ten states. Unity State's Leer County was badly affected by active conflict at the beginning of 2014. In Leer, the county's capitol, large traders have fled, and the main trade routes are blocked by active conflict and localized flooding. This report presents the results of an EMMA that Mercy Corps conducted in Leer County on the livestock, sorghum and sheep and goat markets, which traditionally provide a means of survival for vulnerable households. It proposes a number of response options designed to support the food security of households in Leer County. Depending on how the conflict evolves over the next few months, it recommends one or more of the following options: direct support to conflict-affected households to access key food items and assets and to diversify income sources; support to a variety of market actors to restore market function and possibly strengthen market systems, including support services; and support to farmers to increase agricultural production.