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Pre-Crisis

Siti Zone, Somali Region
November, 2014

2011 was one of the driest years since 1950-51 in many pastoral zones in Ethiopia, leading to extreme food insecurity in the Somali region of the country.This assessment was conducted by Oxfam, Save the Children and Concern in order to determine the market systems' capacities to provide basic food products, including rice, pasta and sorghum, to the rural pastoralist communities during a severe drought and to judge what types of humanitarian responses might be required and feasible to ensure food security of these people during such a crisis situation. It found that all market systems studied seem to have the capacity to meet the respective needs of the population in Siti Zone – even during a severe drought. It suggests that cash based programming is a feasible alternative to in-kind distributions of food in Siti Zone. In this respect it would make sense to advocate for a policy change in the Somali region and try to motivate the responsible authorities to some pilot projects in which the government starts to distribute cash.

Report authors: 
David de Wild
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Every year, Eastern Samar is hit by an average of 20 typhoons. Because of the impacts of these typhoons, chronic WASH issues and high poverty incidence, people remain vulnerable. Oxfam conducted this PCMMA on household water treatment products (HWTP) and financial services for the poor (with a focus on loan and credit services) in order to inform the development of livelihoods and WASH programmes ahead of the next typhoon season. For the HWTP market system, the report recommends collaboration with RHU on pre-stocking of HWTPs ahead of the typhoon season, awareness raising sessions on the availability and use of HWTPs, infrastructure support, rehabilitation of damaged water systems, supporting local traders and pharmacies to stock HWTPs in advance and mapping of actors willing to participate in a voucher scheme for HWTPs. In a future emergency, the report recommends a vouchers-for-HWTPs intervention. For financial services, the report recommends helping sari-sari store owners to become more resilient to shocks through better preparedness, advocacy for reduced interest rates, financial literacy training, awareness raising on the different financial services available and additional mapping of services. In a future typhoon, the report recommends supporting shopkeepers or their suppliers through cash or vouchers and supporting informal money lenders to continue offering their services to the poor and very poor.

Report authors: 
Marie Boulinaud
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Since 2000, more than nine million Mozambicans have been affected by disasters caused by natural hazards, including floods and drought. Zambezia, one of the country's poorest provinces, is especially vulnerable to these hazards, which periodically displace large numbers of people and affect their usual sources of income. This market assessment adapted the EMMA methodology for the pre-crisis context and was intended to develop a baseline for seven market systems critical to EFSL as well as WaSH. The study found that the most appropriate response model for floods and hurricanes was a combination of cash for work (geared at rehabilitation of basic infrastructure for the operation of the market), complemented by unconditional cash transfers for especially vulnerable groups, along with market support actions, especially in the bleach market.

Report authors: 
Carlos Arenas
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Informing emergency response and preparedness ahead of the counter-offensive to recapture Mosul from ISIS, Tilkaif and Shikhan districts, Ninewa Plains
March, 2016

Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, was captured by ISIS in June 2014 and still remains under their control. However, the Iraqi army has vowed to recapture Mosul, and the speculation is that a counter-offensive is imminent. All scenarios for this military operation have dramatic humanitarian implications. According to some estimates, between 500,000 and 1.5 million civilians could flee into either the surrounding areas or into ISIS-controlled Syria. A large influx of new internally displaced persons fleeing towards the Ninewa Plains would have an impact on markets in the area; those markets need to be understood in order to meet humanitarian needs and to inform programming in an appropriate and effective way, while doing no harm. In February 2016, Oxfam and the International Rescue Committee co-facilitated a Pre- Crisis Market Analysis to inform preparedness and emergency response interventions by understanding market systems that are critical to supporting the basic needs and livelihoods recovery needs of populations affected by displacement in the Ninewa Plains - the wheat flour, drinking water and credit market systems. The study analysed how selected market systems are performing in the current situation and aimed to forecast the impacts of the shock scenario in the target areas, before providing numerous recommendations for preparedness and emergency response measures.

Report authors: 
Emmeline Saint, with contributions from Corrie Sissons and Alexandre Gachoud (Oxfam), Rachel Rigby (Tearfund) and Emily Sloane (IRC)
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Informing emergency response and preparedness ahead of the counter-offensive to recapture Mosul from ISIS
March, 2016

Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, was captured by ISIS in June 2014 and still remains under their control. However, the Iraqi army has vowed to recapture Mosul, and the speculation is that a counter-offensive is imminent. All scenarios for this military operation have dramatic humanitarian implications. According to some estimates, between 500,000 and 1.5 million civilians could flee into either the surrounding areas or into ISIS-controlled Syria. A large influx of new internally displaced persons fleeing towards the Ninewa Plains would have an impact on markets in the area; those markets need to be understood in order to meet humanitarian needs and to inform programming in an appropriate and effective way, while doing no harm. In February 2016, Oxfam and the International Rescue Committee co-facilitated a Pre- Crisis Market Analysis to inform preparedness and emergency response interventions by understanding market systems that are critical to supporting the basic needs and livelihoods recovery needs of populations affected by displacement in the Ninewa Plains - the wheat flour, drinking water and credit market systems. This executive summary provides a condensed version of a longer report that analysed how selected market systems are performing in the current situation and aimed to forecast the impacts of the shock scenario in the target areas, before providing numerous recommendations for preparedness and emergency response measures.

Report authors: 
Emmeline Saint, with contribution from Corrie Sissons and Alexandre Gachoud (Oxfam), Rachel Rigby (Tearfund) and Emily Sloane (IRC)
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Korail neighborhood of Dhaka and rural Sirajganj Area
December, 2015

Floods recur on a regular basis in Bangladesh. In urban Korail, floods lead to an increased risk of disease, while in the rural area of Sirajganj, floods threaten poor households' key livelihoods activities, though the main 'disaster' is a chronic lack of labor opportunities during the lean season. The analysis team followed the PCMMA guidance to apply an approach similar to that of the EMMA Toolkit in a pre-crisis context. The team examined how the floods in the context of the lean season and rainy season impact the function of one critical market system in each area (potable water in Korail and agricultural labor in Sirajganj), in order to draw conclusions about the likely impact of future floods and seasonal rains on selected market systems, and to propose appropriate market-based preparedness and response interventions. For the water market system, this report recommends unconditional cash distribution to help people meet their drinking water needs, the installation of mobile water treatment plants and the distribution of locally procured water. For the agricultural labor market system, the report recommends livelihoods diversification and strengthening activities, unconditional cash programs for basic needs during emergency and early recovery periods, conditional cash to enable small-scale farmers to hire agri-laborers, cash for work for DRR-related projects at the community level, vouchers for flood-resistant paddy varieties and the creation or support of agricultural associations and cooperatives.

Report authors: 
Benjamin Barrows, Inés Dalmau i Gutsens
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Western Bhar el Ghazal and Warrap States
September, 2013

More than half of the population in southern Sudan lives below the poverty line. The high household reliance on cereals makes the population highly vulnerable to crop failure and abnormal price movements. This assessment applies learning from the 2011 drought in the Horn of Africa to the South Sudanese context with the aim of supporting more effective, timely and appropriate responses to slow onset recurrent crisis via a pre-crisis market analysis. This study focused on the agricultural labor market system in Warrap and Western Bahr el Ghazal States. Its findings suggest that the agricultural labor market system is not sufficient to cover the gap in household income even in baseline years, let alone emergency years. The agricultural labor market is fragile, and floods, drought and insecurity all reduce the demand for labor. Given the complexity of the agricultural labor system and the high variability among states, and even counties, there is no simple solution to address the challenges noted. This assessment recommends more detailed research, including an HEA study, as well as the provision of agricultural inputs such as seeds and tools and appropriate food assistance.

Report authors: 
Not specified
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WaSH and Shelter Market Systems in the case of IDP evictions, Mogadishu
January, 2016

In March 2015, an estimated 3,500 households (21,000 individuals) were forcibly evicted from Dharkenley District, affecting their access to employment opportunities, shelter and WaSH services and creating challenges in terms of security. This PCMMA was intended to build capacity of national staff in market assessments and to assess the potential to deliver key WaSH and Shelter assistance through local markets following mid-size IDP evictions. Along with several recommendations for indirect support through markets, this report recommends the local procurement and in-kind distribution of aqua tabs; unconditional, restricted value vouchers to IDPs to purchase any of a variety of specified WaSH and shelter items; and the continued local procurement and delivery of CGI doors, ideally in partnership with a range of small businesses and vocational training programs in order to spread the economic benefit of this assistance more widely.

Report authors: 
Mohamed Yussuf, Emily Sloane
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Years of blockades and the depletion of natural resources have severely impacted prospects for economic development of the Gaza Strip. As of 2012, more than one million people in Gaza were living below the poverty line. This report presents the results of an early PCMMA of the wheat flour market system, which is very important in the local economy and local diets. The study considers the likely impact of two hypothetical but possible scenarios on the wheat flour market system. Because of low purchasing power and high food prices, poor households in Gaza are heavily reliant on aid agencies to supply most of their wheat flour needs. This report suggests two additional critical issues that need to be considered: price adaptations in case of increases in private demand and the purchasing power of the food aid beneficiaries. It recommends providing cash and/or vouchers for wheat flour to increase household purchasing power and creating strategic grain reserves in Gaza to control wheat flour prices.

Report authors: 
not specified
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Since the attacks of 2009 until 2012, unemployment in the Gaza Strip remains very high, and average wage levels remain low. Vulnerable households with low incomes and limited or no employment will continue to require support to meet their basic food and non-food needs. The study used a livelihoods perspective and looked at the broiler chicken market as an income market. It also looked at the impacts of the previous two wars to analyse what the impacts of a future similar crisis could be. In this sense, this study was really more of an early PCMMA than an EMMA. This report recommends supporting existing small-scale broiler producers; providing inputs to small-scale producers who experienced losses as a result of wars and who have the potential for sustainability to restart their production; the facilitation of follow-up trainings in poultry production management; advocacy with the Ministry of Agriculture to improve/provide positive support and registration for small-scale producers; advocacy to relevant ministries to provide compensation for losses resulting from conflicts and/or epidemics; facilitating access to credit providers for small-scale producers to prevent them remaining dependent on middlemen for financial services; and conducting further analysis on the chicken feed, gas and credit markets.

Report authors: 
Emmeline Saint
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